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]]>By following the advice outlined in this article, you’ll position yourself for greater success. Here’s my 10 essential tips for every sports bettor.
When it comes to sports betting, it’s essential to establish a budget for yourself before placing any bets. This will help you to prevent overspending and minimize the possibility of financial strain. Here are some tips to consider when setting your sports betting budget:
If you feel that your sports betting activity is becoming problematic or affecting your finances, don’t hesitate to seek help.
Having a solid grasp of odds is vital for anyone who wants to improve at sports betting. Here are some steps to help you understand odds and use them to your advantage:
Understanding the importance of the odds is the biggest step you can take towards improving your sports betting success. Here’s what every sports bettor needs to know about odds.
To get the best odds and maximise your potential profits, it’s important to use multiple betting sites.
There are several advantages to using multiple betting sites, including:
To find the best odds, check out one of my recommended odds comparison sites.
Being selective in sports betting is vital for achieving long-term success. There are two main reasons why selectivity is critical in sports betting:
I’ve highlighted the pitfalls of over-betting and not being selective in an analysis of my Mug Betting Experiment.
Staying disciplined in sports betting is crucial if you want to have long-term success. Here how bettors can remain disciplined:
In short, staying disciplined in sports betting is essential for avoiding emotional mistakes, and maximising your chances of long-term success.
Jumping to conclusions in sports betting is a common mistake that can lead to hasty decisions based on incomplete or inaccurate information. To avoid this pitfall, it’s important for bettors to remain objective when placing their bets. Here are a few strategies that can help:
Avoiding the tendency to jump to conclusions in sports betting can help you avoid making costly and uninformed mistakes. Closely linked to this topic is my post on betting strike rates, which explains how the frequency of winning bets alone does not determine profitability.
Keeping records in betting is crucial because it allows you to track your progress, analyse your performance, and identify areas where you need to improve. Here’s why keeping records in betting is so important:
Overall, keeping records allows you to make data-driven decisions, to manage expectations, and ultimately improve your performance.
Bankroll management is crucial in betting because it can help you to control your risk and increase your chances of long-term success. Here are some reasons why bankroll management is so important:
By adopting a well-planned and disciplined approach to bankroll management, you can increase your chances of long-term success in betting.
Just because a team or player is popular or highly rated, doesn’t mean they’re always the best bet. Bettors need to avoid the temptation to “follow the crowd” and instead focus on identifying undervalued opportunities based on research and analysis.
Here’s why following the crowd in sports betting may not be wise:
If you want to gain deeper insights into the consequences of blindly following prevalent viewpoints, I recommend taking a look at my comprehensive guide on the impact of hype and noise in the world of football.
Setting realistic goals is an essential component of successful sports betting. Here are some tips on how to set achievable goals:
It’s important to keep in mind that sports betting is not a get-rich-quick scheme and bettors should avoid the temptation to make large bets in hopes of instant wealth. Instead, successful sports bettors set realistic goals, manage their bankroll effectively, and make informed, objective betting decisions based on research and analysis. With time, patience, and persistence, it is possible to achieve long-term success in sports betting.
In conclusion, sports betting success can be achieved if approached with the right strategies and mindset.
Setting a budget, understanding odds, using multiple betting sites, being selective, and maintaining discipline are all essential components of successful sports betting. By following these guidelines, bettors can minimise their risks, increase the chances of finding a positive edge, and avoid falling into common pitfalls.
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]]>The post Variance In Sports Betting | Understanding Swings In Results appeared first on Punter2Pro.
]]>High variance bets have a wider range of potential outcomes and are riskier, while a low variance bets have a smaller range of potential outcomes and are less risky.
Understanding variance is crucial for analysing the risk-reward ratio of a bet or betting strategy. So in this article, I explore the key differences between high and low variance bets and how they can impact your sports betting results. This will help you to take a more effective and predictable approach to sports betting.
In statistics, variance is a measure of how spread out a set of data is. It measures the average distance of each data point from the mean (average) of the data set. A high variance indicates that the data is more spread out, while a low variance indicates that the data is more clustered around the mean.
So how does this translate to sports betting?
In sports betting, variance refers to the degree of uncertainty or risk attached to the bets placed. A high risk betting strategy is likely to produce erratic results, with a profit that heavily fluctuates; this is known as a high variance strategy. On the other hand a low risk strategy is likely to produce steady, more predictable results with less aggressive fluctuations to the profit; this is known as a low variance strategy. Let’s discuss these two extremes in more detail.
High variance in betting refers to a high level of risk associated with a particular bet. When a bet has high variance, it means that there is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the chances of winning or losing the bet are less predictable. High variance bets typically have high odds, with a higher potential payout if they win. This means a higher likelihood of losing.
For example, a bet on an underdog team in a sporting event would be considered a high variance bet.
Another example of a high variance bet would be for a specific player to score the first goal in a football match. This bet has high variance because there are many players on the pitch that who could potentially score the first goal, and the outcome is not entirely predictable.
It’s important to note that sports betting variance can be increased by raising the stakes of a strategy, creating larger deviations from the expected value.
Low variance in betting refers to a lower level of risk associated with a particular bet. When a bet has low variance, it means that there is a narrower range of possible outcomes, and the chances of winning or losing the bet are more predictable. Low variance bets typically have lower odds, with a lower potential payout if they win. This means a lower likelihood of losing.
For example, a bet on a heavily favoured team in a sporting event would be considered a low variance bet.
Another example of a low variance bet would be on the total number of points scored in a basketball game. This bet has low variance because the outcome is based on a statistical average of both teams’ scores, and the chances of the actual score falling within a specific range is, generally, quite predictable.
Sports betting variance can also be decreased by lowering the stakes of a strategy, creating smaller deviations from the expected value.
Neither high variance nor low variance is inherently more profitable in sports betting. Strategies involving both, or either, extremes can be profitable. The significant difference between both approaches is that:
Ultimately the long-term profitability of a betting strategy comes down to the value obtained in the bets, and not the risk factor attached to them. This means that some risky, high variance strategies are very lucrative — albeit run the risk of blowing the bankroll. Equally, some low variance strategies are able to preserve the bankroll over a long series of bets — but aren’t profitable whatsoever.
It’s easy to get carried away when you’re winning, or downbeat when you’re losing, but it’s important to remember that variance is a normal part of sports betting. Swings in results exist in any form of gambling.
To illustrate this point, let me share an example of variance from my own experience. I conducted a Mug Betting Experiment, where I bet on every Premier League fixture and based my selections on my own opinion. I tracked my progress on a weekly basis.
At first, the Mug Bets were doing great, but as I expected, normality eventually set in. The run of excellent form was followed up by a run of losses that cancelled out many exceptionally profitable weeks. As a result, my profits swung from +£180 down to +£100 very quickly. This kind of fluctuation is not unusual in sports betting, and perfectly illustrates variance.
The Mug Betting Experiment saw many more large fluctuations in its results — both positive and negative — until it eventually settled at a 0.00% ROI after 270 bets at the end of the trial.
Importantly, I didn’t raise or lower my stakes at any point because I had no rational reason to believe my ludicrous experiment had any form of edge (advantage). This proved to be a very wise decision because, ultimately, I demonstrated that my approach was not a profitable one. Raising my bet sizes due to a winning streak would’ve been catastrophic to the overall PnL.
As I’ve stated in other articles: successful betting not about what you’ve made before, or how many winners you’ve selected. It’s about consistently hitting on value, full stop. So be aware that variance could be masking the true potential of your approach.
Controlling variance in sports betting is challenging because the results depend on events which are out of our hands. However, there are several strategies that bettors can use to minimise the impact of variance on their overall results:
A large data set is essential for reducing variance and improving the accuracy of predictions in sports betting. By analysing a significant amount of data, such as team and player statistics, bettors can gain a clearer understanding of the trends and patterns that affect the outcomes of sporting events.
When analysing one’s own betting performance, a sufficient number of data points is necessary for reliable conclusions. For example, let’s say a bettor places three £50 bets every weekend, resulting in 80 total bets and £4,000 in total stakes over six months. While this may seem like a substantial amount of bets to go by, it’s not enough to draw reliable conclusions from due to variance.
Without a sufficient number of data points, it’s difficult to assess the true performance of a betting strategy. Variance can have a significant impact on results, leading to under or over-performance. Collecting enough data allows bettors to accurately estimate the level of risk and profitability of a particular bet or strategy.
Over a large set of data, the return on investment (ROI) of any strategy will converge to where it belongs. It’s similar to a casino with a fixed house edge on Roulette. The house doesn’t always win on every spin, and profitability can swing enormously. Yet over time the casino’s advantage reveals itself in their profits. This phenomenon is inescapable and emphasises the importance of analysing large data sets to make fair, rational judgements.
I also recommend reading my post on betting Strike Rates, as it nicely ties in with variance.
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]]>The post Is Hype & Noise Impacting Your Football Betting Decisions? appeared first on Punter2Pro.
]]>From media coverage to transfer rumours to social media buzz, there’s a constant stream of noise surrounding football that can make it difficult to separate fact from fiction. In this article, I explore the hype and noise that surrounds professional football and its potential impact on sports bettors.
Recent form in football can have a significant impact on how bettors view upcoming events.
When a team is in good form, football fans usually experience positive emotions such as excitement, pride, and optimism. This often translates to increased media coverage and positive engagement on social platforms. Conversely, when a team is in poor form, football fans often experience negative emotions such as disappointment, frustration, and anger. This can result in decreased attendance at games and negative sentiment.
However, it’s crucial for bettors to avoid being over-influenced by fan sentiment while betting on football. It’s important to remain objective and remember that most runs of extreme good/bad form are temporary and can turn around at any given matchday. Thus, bettors should focus on the team’s overall assets rather than the ‘here & now’ and the attention it generates.
A legacy is essentially the reputation and history that a team or player has built up over time, based on their past achievements and performances. Sports bettors will often give credence to the legacy factor in making sports betting decisions.
While a legacy can influence a team or player’s emotional state and sense of entitlement, it should not be the sole factor in a bettor’s decision-making process. Past achievements and performances are not always an accurate representation of a team or player’s current or future abilities.
For example, a team that has a strong legacy of winning trophies may have undergone significant changes in management or player personnel. Additionally, a player with a strong legacy may be past their prime or dealing with injuries that impact their ability to perform at the same level as before.
Therefore, it is crucial for bettors to consider other factors such as player quality, current form, team chemistry, squad depth, and injuries. These factors provide a more accurate picture of a team or player’s current strengths and weaknesses.
While business aspects like financial stability, ownership changes, and transfer market activity can impact a football team’s ability to compete, bettors should prioritise tangible factors such as form, tactics, and player availability.
Bettors must be cautious not overvalue non-footballing business matters like stadium improvements or sponsorship deals that may not directly, or immediately, affect a team’s performance. They should also consider the context surrounding business matters, as seemingly positive developments, such as new transfers or ownership changes, can have unexpected negative consequences, such as disrupting team morale or altering the playing style.
A holistic approach is necessary for bettors to evaluate a team’s potential, taking into account both business matters and tangible factors. This approach will lead to better-informed decisions.
Bettors will often consider the potential impact of new managers when placing their bets. However, it’s important not to fixate on a manager’s reputation and past successes without considering all other variables at play.
Here are a few things that bettors should keep in mind when considering the impact of new managers:
New transfers are a major factor in how sports bettors evaluate upcoming fixtures, as so much media attention is often given to the impact that new signings can have on a team’s performance and strategy.
Here are a few things that bettors should keep in mind when considering the impact of transfers:
Overall, I recommend approaching transfers with a critical eye and to consider factors that might impact a player’s effectiveness in their new team. Importantly, large transfer fees and a strong reputation do not automatically guarantee that a player will adapt to, and improve, the current state of a squad.
Unexpected and rare events, or “freak events,” can significantly influence how bettors assess football matches.
Bettors must be able to distinguish these singular events from a team’s genuine ability or potential. For instance, if a team wins against a superior club due to unpredictable factors, such as a red card, penalty, or a fortunate goal, it does not necessarily indicate that the team is better than its adversary. Similarly, if a team loses unexpectedly, it does not necessarily imply that they are a weak team. When evaluating such occurrences, it is crucial to consider the context and circumstances.
That said, bettors should remain adaptable in their approach and consider other relevant factors, such as injuries, fatigue, a drop in morale, or a change in tactics, that may have lead to a “freak outcome”. A balanced assessment of the both the singular event and the broader context is needed.
The league table is a common metric used by fans and bettors to evaluate football clubs and players. However, it is crucial to recognise that a team’s position in the league table may not always reflect their true ability or potential. Several factors, including luck, scheduling, injuries, and opponent quality, can influence a team’s league position.
Therefore, it is unwise to evaluate a team solely based on their league table position. For instance, a team that has mostly faced weaker opponents may have a high ranking in the table, but their actual ability may not be accurately reflected. Conversely, a team that has had a tough schedule or has been unlucky in some matches may have a lower position in the table, but they could still be prove to be a strong team.
Moreover, certain teams may prioritise specific competitions over others, which can impact their league performance. For example, a team that is focused on excelling in a cup competition is likely to rest their key players in league matches, resulting in a decline in their position in the table.
To make informed decisions, bettors might consider multiple factors beyond the league table, such as a team’s form, playing style, injuries, and upcoming fixtures. By doing so, they can gain a more accurate understanding of a team’s chances of success.
An all-out attacking style of play is exciting to watch, involves plenty of goals, and regularly attracts positive media attention. However, sports bettors must not allow the entertainment factor to sway their objectivity.
An all-out attacking style of football has several drawbacks:
Bettors should factor in these considerations when making their bets and be prepared to adjust their approach if necessary.
To produce consistent profits in football betting, one must continually outsmart the multitude of other bettors. Emotionally invested fans and the football media can influence the public sway the odds in any direction — but following the crowd blindly won’t yield positive results.
When making football betting decisions it’s essential to keep an open mind and to take note of recent developments, but to predominantly focus within the game itself to identify factors that could affect performance. Try to shut out the noise and focus on finding odds that may have been exaggerated in one direction and capitalise on those opportunities. This approach is the key to discovering profitable value bets, which is the cornerstone of achieving sustainable profits in football betting.
Also see:
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]]>The post 10 Biggest Sports Betting Myths | Top Lies & Misconceptions appeared first on Punter2Pro.
]]>Some views on sports betting are understandable while others are amusing, misguided, and just plain wrong. Let’s set the record straight.
Bookmakers don’t know the outcome of an event before it happens, nor do they always “get it right” with their odds. Those are myths.
It’s fair to say that bookmakers are experts in offering odds at lower-than-fair prices. That’s how they capture a “fee” for the service they provide.
But price inaccuracies still constantly occur at bookmakers, which offers value to customers. It’s just a case of spotting them.
Learn more:?How Do Bookmakers Earn? How Big Is Their Edge?
Finding an edge in sports betting involves making calculations and, in particular, using probabilities to your advantage. There’s no way of getting around that.
However, there are profitable ways to bet that require little or no calculations from the bettor. For instance, following the selections from a value bet finder or proven tipster.
So, no, you do not necessarily need to be a “stats guru” to become a profitable sports bettor.
Believe it or not, risk-free sports betting opportunities do exist and many people profit from them.
The two risk-free techniques are:
The majority of sports bettors lose in the long-run. So for the most part it’s, as we say, a “mug’s game”. But sports betting professionals exist and certainly do make a living from it. Most just tend to keep quiet about their occupation — perhaps in fear of giving away their secrets.
Like all other ventures, sports betting takes hard work. It’s difficult to find an advantage over the markets as the competition for odds is fierce, and bookmakers do their utmost to limit profitable bettors. So producing a consistent ROI doesn’t come easy.
You can learn more on how professionals succeed from my article: How To Make Money From Sports Betting
Unless a game is fixed, there’s no such thing as a guaranteed or “dead certain” result in sport. Anything can happen.
Some tipsters claim to have “inside information” about upcoming events. Even if they did, then it’s highly unlikely they would let anyone know about it so openly — if only to avoid a brush with the law. You’ve also got to wonder: would they really want to sell that knowledge?
A lot of tipsters claim to offer specialist knowledge and foresight — but the majority of them do not deliver on their promises. So it’s vitally important to use a reputable site to find a reliable tipster and to always maintain realistic expectations.
Learn more: Can Tipsters Be Trusted?
It’s obviously not true that high odds (long-shots) never win.
Odds reflect the probability — an approximation of the chance — of an event occurring. Inevitably an unusual event (i.e. an “upset”) will occur, but that’s life for you.
It’s?true to say is that there’s “increasingly more risk“ as you bet on higher odds. Betting on high odds certainly requires more risk tolerance; you can go a long while without winning!
Importantly, you’re not necessarily making a good bet just because an outcome is more likely to strike a win. Value can occur in both short and long prices.
Just because you haven’t won lately doesn’t mean you’re due a win.
You can hit winning and losing streaks, but ultimately every new bet you place will be independent from previous ones (in most cases, anyway). This means that your previous results will not influence your upcoming results. The losing streak may continue.
Some gamblers take the supersticous approach of raising their stakes or betting at higher odds when they feel that a win is ‘due’. That’s a dangerous way to go.
Don’t count on a win to offset losses, and always maintain stakes that you’re prepared to lose.
This line of thinking is one of the main reasons why bookmakers continue to thrive. You can’t just “pick more winners” and disregard the value of the odds. The odds matter more than anything else.
Think of it this way: if you wanted to pick more winners you could back Real Madrid to win every league match. Right?
Of course, you’ll win very frequently by backing Madrid every game. But that still doesn’t generate a profit long-term — because the odds stand in the way. The prices are too low.
It’s not about how often you win, it’s about how much you are paid out when you do.
Finding value is paramount to sports betting success. So my advice to any beginner is to always focus on finding a good price before anything else. Over time your advantage or disadvantage over the bookmaker will eventually reveal itself in your results.
Nobody can deny that chance plays its part in sporting results. Anything can happen. But long-term success in sports betting is not dictated by chance; it’s dictated by the selections you make.
Some sporting outcomes stand a much better chance than others. These differences are represented in the betting odds available. Public opinion, both professional and recreational, shapes these odds, making them increasingly accurate as the event approaches. This means that the markets are”tight” — making it near-impossible to earn a profit by randomly making selections.
And since you cannot simply rely on luck to make a profit from sports betting, you need a smart way to select bets with odds in your favour. In other words, you need a strategy.
It’s alarming how many times I’ve heard this or seen it written online.
Bookmakers rarely have better odds than the betting exchanges. In fact they do everything they can to keep their odds lower to avoid leaving themselves open to arbitrage betting.
I think this false belief stems from misinformation provided by gambling affiliates. It’s not uncommon to read that a specific bookmaker is offering the “best odds” for an event — when in fact you can head straight over to the Betfair exchange and instantly find?better value 99%+ of the time.
Furthermore, the betting exchange odds aren’t always shown on popular odds comparison sites; probably because it only serves to discredit the bookies those sites are partnered with. The omission leaves many bettors misinformed.
However, despite their lower odds, I should point out that there are several advantages that bookies offer over the betting exchanges.
Sports betting sites and affiliates are under increasing pressure to provide accurate information about gambling and the risks involved. In the future we can expect less misinformation. But for now I hope this article has helped to debunk some of the most common sports betting myths.
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]]>The post Mug Betting | Are Casual Sports Bettors Destined To Lose? appeared first on Punter2Pro.
]]>The vast majority of casual sports bettors can be classified as “Mug Bettors” or “Mugs” for short, as harsh as that sounds.
I wanted to find out how much regular football punters are likely to lose over the course of a season, and whether I could defy the odds by generating a profit from Mug Betting. So I placed an equal £5 bet on every Premier League fixture for the remainder of the season. I based all of my selections on one thing: my opinion.
How do you think I performed? Read on to find out…
Every seasoned bettor knows someone, or follows someone on Twitter, who claims to “smash the bookies.” But do these successful gamblers ever quit their jobs and make a living solely from sports betting?
Not in my experience.
Needless to say, I often doubt the success stories I hear and read about within the sports betting community, especially if the approach doesn’t involve using a mathematical model.
Nonetheless, I was intrigued to see if I could succeed by backing one selection in every remaining Premier League fixture for the season, equipped with only one tool: my opinion. I wanted to emulate the average gambler to test whether there’s a skill element — which cannot be quantified — that impacts sports betting performance.
Thus, the “Mug Betting Experiment” was formed. I decided to use the Betfair exchange Match Odds market to ensure I obtained the best available odds at the time of betting. I posted my bet selections before each match day.
In my original version of this blog post, I predicted that my Mug Bets would break even. In reality, the outcome could have been much better or much, much worse.
This prediction might sound pessimistic, but I have always believed in the efficiency of the betting markets. I’ve never trusted my ability to beat those markets using guesswork alone.
It’s spooky how accurate my prediction for the Mug Bets experiment turned out to be.
After placing all 270 bets, the result was a 0.00% ROI once the 5% Betfair commission was applied. The final profit was a mere +£4.33.
Think about that for a moment. After 270 mug bets, I was almost exactly even.
Feel free to check the Week-by-week updates if you find it hard to believe.
Placing 270 bets provided a reasonable insight into my performance. To put it into perspective, it’s like placing 2 bets every weekend for 2.59 years (assuming no summer break).
It’s safe to say I had no edge in my “strategy”.
Before the experiment, I knew from experience that by using the betting exchange and adhering to a strict fixed stake, I had a good chance of breaking even or losing only a small percentage of the total stake (after commission).
Therefore, it seemed logical that over a sample of 270 mug bets, I wouldn’t lose or gain much profit. I was right, down to two decimal places.
In any type of gambling, there’s an inherent ‘edge’—usually in favour of the bookmaker or casino. A successful sports bettor must find favourable odds to gain an edge and earn a profit over the long term.
Importantly, gaining an edge is not about “picking winners” or relying on good fortune. It’s about systematically identifying value odds so that you eventually come out on top.
Most bettors don’t have any advantage—I certainly didn’t in my experiment. I simply backed what I thought looked like value or what I ‘felt’ was a good bet. The approach wasn’t sophisticated enough.
Ultimately, even a seasoned sports bettor cannot succeed without a proper betting model to support their selections.
To learn more, read my article on Value Betting.
Quietly, I am quite proud of the 0.00% ROI I achieved in the Mug Betting Experiment. However, I have the betting exchange to thank for that.
If I had placed all my bets with bookmakers, the result would have been significantly worse.
Bookmakers offer much lower odds than betting exchanges. How much lower depends on the site, markets, size of the odds, and liquidity/demand, among other factors. Generally, you can expect the odds at bookmakers to be 5-15% lower than Betfair for Premier League fixtures.
Considering the best and worst-case scenarios, the results would be:
That’s a big difference.
This experiment truly demonstrates how much better off sports bettors are when using betting exchanges.
The experiment presented challenges typical bettors encounter regularly.
Looking at the results up to the first 80 bets, one might have perceived a winning trend.
If I had increased the stakes at that point, as many bettors might do, I would have substantially lost money in the experiment. From that juncture onward, the profit and loss trended mostly downward, except for one significant win when Watford defeated Arsenal at the Emirates.
To address this issue, I recommend continuously monitoring your current return on investment (ROI) and maintaining realistic expectations. Aim for a 5-10% ROI — that’s sufficient. In this case, the sample was far outside my expected range, sitting at +35.37%. Such an ROI is unsustainable over time. It was inevitable that the results would regress to the mean, a prediction I made several times in the week-by-week updates of the Mug Bets.
The lesson here is clear: whether you’re currently winning or losing is less important than where you’ll stand in the long run. Increasing stakes after a short winning streak can be perilous. You can learn more about betting swings from my post on variance.
One hypothesis is that I started well but lost my edge over time.
Initially, I relied on personal insights to guide my selections. For instance, I believed that Manchester United and West Ham were overhyped by the media during the summer, and I expected Chelsea to rebound from their poor 2015/16 campaign. These perspectives helped me identify pricing inefficiencies early in the season.
However, as the season progressed, I found the odds becoming sharper. As public perception aligned more closely with mine, I lost the ability to find value bets. I needed new perspectives to maintain an edge, which I lacked.
Another possibility is that my early success was largely due to luck, and the outcomes eventually balanced out.
Regardless, the positive start was unsustainable.
Surprisingly, no. In fact, I didn’t back them enough.
Out of the 27 Spurs matches during the Mug Betting Experiment:
The critical issue here is that I incorrectly backed the draw too frequently (9 times), and Spurs won all 9 of those matches. If I had shown more bias or faith towards Spurs, I wouldn’t have incurred a significant loss of £45 from the draw selections alone.
It’s possible that I overcompensated when it came to betting against Spurs. I was aware of the potential for bias and may have subconsciously avoided backing them too often.
Based on this small sample, it appears that I gradually gained more confidence in Spurs as the season progressed. However, this confidence didn’t pay off because the odds did not reflect sufficient value. This indicates that the market also believed Spurs would win most of their remaining matches and finish high in the standings.
Maybe I would have fared better if I hadn’t wagered on every single remaining fixture of the season. Often, I felt constrained having to pick a selection when none of the three outcomes seemed appealing. Allowing myself the option to skip matches would have allowed for much greater selectivity.
However, if I truly aimed to enhance my results and turn a profit in the Premier League betting markets, relying solely on my opinion wouldn’t suffice. That’s for sure.
In essence, while you and I may have more football knowledge than others, profitability in betting demands insight beyond what we individually know about the game.
I hope this experiment provides you with some perspective and helps you to maintain realistic expectations when it comes to casual sports betting.
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]]>The post Traits Of Professional Gamblers | Characteristics, Habits & Skills appeared first on Punter2Pro.
]]>Strategy and methodology are crucial factors. Intelligence and analytical skills help enormously, too. However, beyond these, qualities such as mentality and character traits are equally vital.
It’s important to remember that gambling should primarily be approached as entertainment rather than a reliable way to make money, as very few manage to succeed in the long term. But if you’re looking to improve your overall approach to betting and develop safer habits, it’s wise to emulate the habits of profitable gamblers.
So here’s the top 10 traits of successful bettors.
Let’s face it: Celebrating big wins is part of the enjoyment of gambling.
However, if you find yourself boasting about wins while downplaying losses without consistent profitability, it’s time for a reality check. This behavior is a hallmark of unsuccessful bettors either masking their true performance or refusing to acknowledge it.
Be honest with yourself about how you’re performing.
If you want to be truly successful at gambling then you shouldn’t see winning as something that’s out of the ordinary, or losing as something to be ashamed of. Viewing wins and losses objectively is essential; both are inevitable in this game. What matters most is making informed decisions with every bet, regardless of the outcome.
Professional gamblers don’t rely on luck alone. For a deeper dive into the professional approach to betting, I recommend exploring strategies in “Sports Trading on Betfair.”
Even when your strategy hits a rough patch, maintaining discipline is key.
Variance ensures not every bet will win, regardless of how smart your betting strategy is. Riding out the rough patches and trusting in a proven long-term approach sets professional bettors apart from casual ones.
However, if doubts arise about your strategy’s effectiveness or you sense a mistake — stop and reassess. Check out my detailed post on sample sizes in betting analysis, highlighting the importance of basing strategies on a large set of data.
Before jumping to conclusions, you should ask yourself: why would my approach to betting make a profit?
Pin down a logical reason why your idea has some sort of advantage over the Bookmaker or Betting Exchange. Do you know something others don’t? Have you found some sort of ‘gap’?
If you are compiling your own odds to identify bets, you want to ensure that your calculations make sense. You should scrutinise your findings and consider: are my odds and predictions truly more accurate than the market itself, or does it represent just one narrow viewpoint?
I once trialled a tipster service with target odds compiled by an “algorithm”. I identified that the target odds varied too much from the industry odds — so I requested past data. Eventually I proved that their bet selections were in fact completely and utterly useless. If you’re interested, you can read my summary of that dodgy tipster service.
The moral here is to always be critical of your findings, and other people’s. Assume the worst until you prove otherwise.
Successful bettors create, refine and verify betting strategies by analysing past results or market behaviours. There’s more than one way of doing this.
One approach is to collect historical data and load it up in Excel. Provided you have the skills, you can simulate the past profitability of a strategy over a large set of results. Excel can also be used to?compile your own estimates of odds for future sports events by?assigning probabilities to outcomes. One mathematical method I suggest applying to your data is the Poisson Distribution, as explained by Pinnacle’s betting blog.
Betfair software applications?or trading tools can also be used to further your analysis, and to trial out strategies. Some applications are capable of ‘mock’ betting on a live marketplace (e.g. Betfair), and collecting data in real-time with only minimal input from the user. Once you’re comfortable with your findings, it can be switched into real mode. One software suite I recommend trialling is BF Bot Manager.
Smart, professional bettors are conscious of their bankroll — particularly when starting out. If you bet beyond your means then your professional gambling career will be very short-lived.
So how can you avoid overstretching?
First and foremost, consider the odds you’re betting at. If your average odds are, let’s say 10.0, then each bet has an implied 10% win rate. At these odds it’s not unusual to encounter 10+ straight losses — sometimes more if you’re unlucky. So if you’re betting high stakes with a limited bankroll, then you have to be prepared for the possibility that you could bust out. The solution is simple: cap your odds.
Staking plans, such as the Kelly Criterion, help to structure your betting. But all staking plans have their own advantages and disadvantages. To ride out bad streaks I recommend a simple approach of betting with around 1-5% of your bankroll. This is a reasonable guideline, especially if you’re betting at low odds where there’s less variance. Raise stakes as you begin to make profit.
In general, my advice is to avoid becoming too fixated on staking plans as this alone is no substitute for a profitable strategy. Furthermore, you can’t always stick to a staking plan if there isn’t sufficient liquidity for your selections — so they’re often just theoretical.
The bottom line is: you need?to be betting on value. If your bets do not generate a profit on an flat-stake over a large/significant sample, then it’s not value.
Professional bettors are able to detach their personal views and biases from sports events. Decisions are made based on the odds.
It’s never about “picking winners” or what you think is a good bet. Unsubstantiated views will not help you to succeed.
Over time, your advantage/disadvantage over the Bookmakers or Betting Exchange will eventually reveal itself in your results — there’s no escaping it. The key to coming out on top is capitalising on good prices (value bets) consistently.
For instance, you might select a loser at 10/1 odds but if the fair odds were 7/1 this was still a good bet to make. Equally, you could win at 5/1 odds but if the fair odds were 6/1 then it was still a bad bet. This is a very difficult mindset shift for casual bettors to make.
Learn about value in sports betting.
Professional Betfair traders specialise in predicting whether odds will rise or fall. By correctly predicting the direction, traders can trade out at a guaranteed profit.
Trading on odds movements as opposed to forecasting the outcome using statistics is called ‘Cold Trading‘.?Cold Traders don’t usually?analyse the specifics of the sports event?itself, but instead focus solely on market trends. Many profitable cold traders place?particular emphasis on the:
Whether you’re aiming to become a sports trader or a fixed-odds bettor there’s a simple rule every sports bettor must know: if by the start of an event the odds have fallen a significant amount from where you backed, then what you have found is value. Consistently doing this is profitable in the long run.
For proof of this concept, I highly recommend reading my analysis on?beating the closing line.
You may feel a sense of nervousness when you make that initial ‘leap of faith’ and launch a new strategy. But if you’re forever placing bets with sweaty palms or over-excitement, then take a step back.
Make sure you’re confident in what you’re doing. Keep the bet sizes within your limits. Reduce your variance by betting on lower odds. Make sure you’ve been thorough in?your?research and that you’re?satisfied with?your selections. Refer back to?historical data if necessary.?Don’t rush into something that you’re unsure about.
If you think you’re in a rut, then try to address it early on. For more information, read my Q&A: Gambling Problems & Addiction.
Professional bettors typically search?for their?‘edge’ by collecting data of their own, or?paying for reliable data sources. This is particularly true for horse racing — where meetings are traditionally analysed by punters using data sources such as the Racing Post or other stats-based websites.
The use of statistics is very popular in horse racing because there are so many factors that impact a race. Some of the most-used data items are:
Whatever the sport, smart bettors will consider influential factors, and assign a level of importance (“a weighting”) that this has on their bet selections.
But finding an edge is like anything else — those who have some type of advantage will succeed in a competitive market. Under this principle: the more research you put into your betting system, the more chance you have of finding the competitive advantage that others don’t have.
I’ve written a post on the limitations of football stats, which is relevant to every sport. It’s worth a read.
Successful gamblers accept that they can’t always win. They don’t feel that they’re fighting against the Bookmaker and that they need to ‘force’ a win. Professional gamblers look for a long-term ROI — not short-term gains to cancel out previous results.
If you’re chasing losses, then you’re lacking discipline and have to make a change.
I recommend focusing your attention on developing a high frequency strategy (of low risk), as opposed to a high risk approach using large stakes on fewer events. You’ll experience less variance in doing so, and you’ll quickly unveil the true ROI of a strategy by collecting a greater number of data points.
Arbitrage Betting is a perfect?example of a disciplined, high frequency strategy — and it’s risk-free. I recommend this as a starting point for those aspiring to become a professional bettor.
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]]>While sports coverage adds to the immersion and enjoyment of following a sports team or individual and often provides bettors with additional information to make smarter decisions, it needs to be consumed cautiously. In other words: not everything you watch, read or listen to in the sports media will benefit your betting results.
In this article, we will examine the impact of media coverage on sports betting and explore strategies for navigating this dynamic landscape.
Media coverage impacts how sports bettors see things, what they know, and ultimately what they decide to do.
While bettors traditionally relied on tabloid publications and limited broadcasts, modern bettors can lean on a vast network of interconnected fans and a myriad of media sources.
The modern digital era provides sports fans with an unprecedented deluge of news, statistics, and expert analyses — all readily accessible with a simple tap of the fingertips. This constant, 24/7 stream of information broadens the scope for sports bettors, and adds to its allure by offering real-time updates on games and events.
Moreover, the prevalence of social media platforms such as X (Twitter), Instagram, and Facebook have created a space for instantaneous sharing of opinions, tips, and predictions among sports fans and betting communities. This web of information shapes the perceptions and emotions of sports fans as a collective, influencing how individuals perceive teams, players, and the likelihood of specific outcomes.
As the demand for live broadcasting steadily rises, and the depth of analytics continues to improve, sports betting is evolving beyond mere outcome prediction and into a more integrated and immersive experience.
The following are some of the potential benefits of elevated media coverage:
While media coverage can positively impact sports betting, it’s crucial to acknowledge the potential downfalls that come with it. The following are some of the potential negative impacts of media coverage:
In the age of media oversaturation, adopting responsible betting habits is critical. Here are some recommendations:
Regular self-assessment and a thoughtful approach to media influence are key components of safe sports betting in the media age.
Sports betting in the media age presents a double-edged sword, offering both opportunities and challenges for enthusiasts.
While media coverage enhances the overall betting experience, provides valuable information, and fosters a sense of community, it also brings forth potential pitfalls such as misleading information, emotional influence, and the normalisation of risky behaviour.
A balanced and responsible approach is required. Bettors should leverage media coverage for insights while maintaining a critical eye, conducting independent research, and verifying sources. Setting clear betting limits, and viewing sports betting as entertainment rather than a guaranteed source of income are essential components of responsible participation.
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]]>Let’s delve into the art of unconventional wagering.
Before you can effectively wager against the grain, it’s essential to understand the basics of sports betting. Traditional sportsbooks, such as the FanDuel Sportsbook, offer odds for various events. These odds are designed to balance the amount of money bet on each side of an outcome, ensuring the bookmaker profits regardless of the outcome.
Odds represent the bookmaker’s assessment of an event’s likelihood. The odds indicate not only the potential profit but also the implied probability of a specific outcome. Learning to interpret odds correctly is crucial for sports betting success, as it enables you to spot opportunities where the bookmaker’s perception might differ from your own analysis.
Contrary to popular belief, the bookmakers pricing methods are not infallible. That’s precisely why professional bettors are able to find profitable opportunities — often by studying team statistics, player performance, injury reports, and other relevant data — to make informed bets that go against popular consensus.
Learn how bookmaker’s odds work
The human tendency to favour popular teams and athletes can lead to predictable betting behaviours and patterns. For instance, many people tend to gravitate toward well-known teams and players who have previously — or recently — enjoyed success. This herd mentality often results in odds that are less favourable for those who follow the crowd.
To succeed in sports betting, it’s important to break free from psychological patterns and make informed, independent-minded decisions based around?value. This approach involves identifying opportunities where the odds offered by the sportsbook are higher than the bettor’s estimated probability of the outcome occurring. Discipline and objectivity is required during this process.
Data and analysis play a crucial role in breaking free from conventional wisdom and focusing on value. Bettors can use historical performance data, statistics, changes within the betting markets and other relevant factors to make informed decisions.
Additionally, exploring different sportsbooks for favourable odds, delving into niche markets, and considering underdogs when supported by research, are essential components of a successful strategy. However, it’s important to note that the odds for less popular outcomes can still fall significantly short of what would make the bet truly valuable.
Therefore, wagering against the grain doesn’t simply mean going against popular opinion; it’s about consistently spotting value where others don’t.
The main benefits of betting against the grain are as follows:
In simple terms, if you’re right when most people are wrong, you stand to gain considerably more.
Like any high-reward strategy, betting against the grain comes with its own set of risks, including:
Successful contrarian betting requires a deep understanding of the risks involved, a well-defined strategy, discipline, and a commitment to continuous learning and improvement. It’s a delicate balance between risk and reward, requiring a different mindset and a well-thought-out strategy.
If you’re considering an audacious approach to sports betting, here are a few basic tips:
As with all forms of betting, it’s essential to manage your expectations and be prepared for both wins and losses along the way.
In conclusion, while the majority of bettors play it safe, adhering to established strategies and expert advice, there also exists a niche of gamblers who find success by swimming upstream.
Betting against the grain is not for the faint-hearted. It demands deep knowledge, sharp analyses, and a risk appetite. Yet, for those who master this art, the rewards can be unparalleled. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a newbie, remember that sometimes, to win long term, you have to think differently to the crowd.
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]]>In this article, we’ll navigate the complexities of maintaining objectivity while supporting our beloved teams and uncover the strategies that enable fans to strike the perfect equilibrium.
Engaging in the realm of sports betting online requires more than a mere affinity for a particular team. It requires a blend of quantitative analysis, psychological acumen, and a dash of intuition.
Distinguished bettors are not solely reliant on chance; their decisions are underpinned by a foundation of meticulously examined data. This data encompasses historical performances of teams, the current landscape, and the emergence of trends. These trends, akin to signposts, function as predictive indicators, assisting in forecasting potential outcomes.
Importantly, mastering effective betting requires detaching from emotional biases and giving priority to objective information. However, for individuals with a deep passion for sports, the idea that numerical data can reliably forecast game results might be met with initial scepticism. For many sports fans, statistics are considered uninteresting or “irrelevant”, while others feel that they diminish some of the romanticism associated with following their team.
Nonetheless, with prolonged and thorough analysis large data sets, consistent patterns and trends become evident. These patterns, once recognised and absorbed, shed light on the underlying mechanics that govern sports events.
Fans often pledge their support to a team, holding on to that allegiance through thick and thin. They revel in their team’s triumphs and mourn the losses, living each moment as though on the playing field themselves. This fan loyalty, while admirable, can skew objective decision-making when it comes to wagering on sports.
So how can you balance team allegiance with objectivity? Can the two co-exist?
Fan enthusiasm can often create a cloud of bias, blocking the clear sightlines needed to assess a team’s actual standing, recent form, or player dynamics. This can be a hurdle to clear-headed betting decisions.
For instance, a bettor must be willing to place wagers against their team if the odds and data suggest it’s the best course of action. Indeed, it may feel disloyal, but it underlines the importance of viewing betting as a strategic exercise rather than an extension of fan loyalty.
In other words, bet with your head, not your heart.
It’s vital to broaden your viewpoint beyond emotional attachment to a team. This can include analysing both teams in a match, seeking expert opinions, evaluating historical performance, observing market trends, engaging with neutral opinions, and assessing recent form.
By incorporating varied viewpoints, bettors can make more objective decisions, reducing the impact of emotional bias.
In the realm of sports betting, peers’ influence can often sway a wager’s direction. For instance, the betting choices of friends or the general public might bias a bettor towards or against a particular team. However, this social influence distorts the objectivity required for a solid betting strategy.
An effective bettor will maintain a keen sense of individuality, trusting their research and judgment over popular opinion. The ability to resist peer pressure, and to be willing to bet against prevailing sentiment, are qualities that set accomplished bettors apart, helping them to balance loyalty and a systematic approach to betting.
For objective betting, it’s recommend that you seek input from friends, experts, betting communities, multiple news sources. This can provide alternative viewpoints and insights that help balance your personal attachment.
However, on the flip side, it’s crucial to leverage the detailed understanding that comes from being a dedicated fan. A devoted supporter will likely have a deep comprehension of their team’s strengths, weaknesses, and overall performance dynamics among other factors. You can harness this knowledge to guide your strategies and predict possible outcomes — provided you temper it with adequate objectivity.
“Practicing Detachment” in sports betting entails treating your decisions as financial investments rather than emotionally driven choices. This means approaching betting objectively, setting budgets, managing risks, analysing returns, maintaining discipline, and learning from mistakes.
By adopting a business-like mindset and applying principles akin to sound investment strategies, you can make better informed and rational betting decisions.
Understanding the dynamics of the betting market is vital for striking the right balance between team loyalty and strategic betting.
Bookmakers’ odds reflect public sentiment, shaped by factors like recent performance, injuries, and media narratives. Yet, odds don’t always mirror actual probabilities. Savvy bettors spot these inaccuracies and capitalise on them. These are known as value bets.
Therefore, it’s important for sports fans to focus on market dynamics to shift from a fan-centric view to value-driven focus.
In essence, as a fan, you can hope for your team’s triumph. However, as a bettor, you need to set aside those emotions and approach decisions with impartiality, grounded in logical reasoning. This delicate balancing act between emotions and reason can be mastered through consistent practice.
Striking the perfect equilibrium between team loyalty and an objective betting strategy is an intricate art. Therefore it’s essential for sports fans to recognise that their emotional connection to a team or individual may inadvertently influence their judgment when it comes to evaluating the likelihood of a particular outcome.
By viewing sports betting as a separate entity from fan loyalty, bettors can begin to navigate the world of sports wagering with a clearer perspective and enhanced success rate.
Remember, being a fan is about passion, but successful betting is a game of strategy and understanding.
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]]>The post Confirmation Bias In Sports Betting & How To Avoid It appeared first on Punter2Pro.
]]>However, by being conscious of this tendency and striving to overcome it, we can enhance our critical thinking and analytical skills, not just in the realm of sports betting, but in all aspects of life. Thus, recognising and avoiding confirmation bias is critical for making well-informed decisions and achieving success in various endeavours.
Confirmation bias is a common cognitive bias in sports betting, where individuals tend to seek out and interpret information that aligns with their existing beliefs.
Gamblers are particularly susceptible to confirmation bias, often experiencing a false sense of validation when they observe a positive outcome or trend that reinforces their methodology or thought process. However, this can lead to significant losses if the approach was flawed to begin with.
In many cases, gamblers fail to see beyond their narrow and biased field of vision, limiting their ability to consider alternative approaches or factors that may impact their results. It’s important for sports bettors to remain vigilant and actively seek out diverse perspectives and information to mitigate the effects of confirmation bias.
Confirmation bias can lead to make decisions. Here are some examples of confirmation bias in sports betting:
Overall, it’s important for bettors to remain open-minded and objective when evaluating data and to seek out diverse perspectives to mitigate the effects of confirmation bias.
Gambling penalises those who mistakenly believe they have discovered a winning formula. Confirmation bias plays a crucial role in preventing gamblers from exploring new and potentially more effective betting strategies. Instead, they tend to cling to their existing approach, even when it’s not working,
Here are some important points to keep in mind that can assist you in reducing the impact of confirmation bias:
In sports betting there’s a distinction to be made between an approach that’s “profitable” and one that’s “made money”.
Many gamblers automatically assume that the latter implies that their approach to sports betting is profitable. That’s, unfortunately, not necessarily the case.
Confirmation bias can be difficult to avoid, especially when you’re actively seeking an advantage to generate profit. In these situations, it’s natural to want to see positive results. However, from my experience, it’s crucial to assume that any betting system you develop will fail until you gather enough evidence to prove its effectiveness.
While this may sound discouraging, it’s essential to remain patient and be critical of your strategies, especially when they show early signs of success. By doing so, you can save yourself a significant amount of money and avoid disappointment. Ultimately, taking a cautious and methodical approach to your betting strategies can increase your chances of long-term success.
Managing a betting strategy is similar to running a business, where it can either yield a profit or incur losses. However, if your product is flawed, then it is likely to fail.
A profitable sports betting strategy is not haphazardly put together; it requires comprehensive research and analysis. There is always a reason why a winning method outperforms the market, typically because it can identify overpriced “value” odds.
As you develop your strategy, it’s crucial to ask yourself a few critical questions:
By thoroughly considering these factors and taking a disciplined approach, you can increase your chances of success in sports betting, just as you would in running a successful business.
Sports commentators, pundits, bloggers, podcasts, and journalists hold a significant influence in shaping public opinion. However, our tendency to follow those with similar views to our own rather than opposing viewpoints can lead to a biased and poorly informed perspective. This is especially problematic for bettors as sports media can negatively impact their ability to spot opportunities, challenge beliefs, or accept facts.
It’s not uncommon for bettors to search for articles and statistics that support their views, such as citing a team’s recent home record to justify a bet, while disregarding other relevant information entirely. However, a skilled bettor develops the habit of analysing large sets of data and forming their own truth, rather than relying on a single perspective.
To overcome the negative impact of confirmation bias and improve decision-making in sports betting, it’s essential to be open-minded, consider multiple viewpoints, and continuously evaluate and update your strategies based on reliable data and analysis. By doing so, you will increase your chances of success in sports betting.
It’s not uncommon for betting strategies to experience losing runs — but waiting for the tide to turn is not always the best course of action.
In some cases, a strategy has no edge and will continue to produce losses overall. Despite this, some gamblers will convince themselves that the method is sound and that results will eventually improve by merely holding their nerve.
It’s crucial to assess why your strategy may be experiencing a downturn and whether the losses are reasonable or not. If you come to find that the strategy has no edge, it would be wise to let go and explore other options.
While it can be difficult to abandon any strategy you’ve worked hard on, it’s important to remain objective and make rational decisions based on data. Sometimes, you just have to let go.
To learn more, I highly recommend reading my related article: How To Tell If Betting Results Were Luck Or Skill
Sports betting mirrors life itself: you can be lucky while doing the wrong things, and unlucky while doing the right things. However, consistent success requires taking the right path, even if it may not always yield immediate results.
Remember that hope cannot influence sports outcomes or probabilities. Successful betting results are only achievable with an edge, which comes from a mathematical advantage. This is a crucial point to keep in mind.
To become a successful sports bettor, we must strive to avoid letting confirmation bias influence our decisions. Collecting evidence, exploring different perspectives, challenging one’s beliefs — even questioning me and other bloggers — is the way to improve.
Through running this site, I have come to realise that it can be incredibly challenging to persuade any gambler to change their way of thinking and alter their approach for the better once they have become firmly entrenched in their ways. Nevertheless, I remain committed to helping readers to see sports betting from a different perspective, in the hope that they can adopt more effective and sustainable strategies going forward.
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